Mark Steyn, in the introduction to America Alone:
1970 doesn’t seem that long ago. If you’re in you fifties or sixties, as many of the chaps running the Western world are wont to be, your pants are narrower than they were back then and your hair’s less groovy, but the landscape of your life—the look of your house, the layout of your car, the shape of your kitchen appliances, the brand names of the stuff in the fridge—isn’t significantly different. And yet that world is utterly altered. Just to recap those bald statistics: in 1970, the developed nations had twice as big a share of the global population as the Muslim world: 30 percent to 15 percent. By 2000, they were at parity: each had about 20 percent.
And by 2020?
September 11, 2001, was not “the day everything changed,” but the day that revealed how much had already changed. On September 10, how many journalists had the Council on American-Islamic Relations or the Canadian Islamic Congress or the Muslim Council of Britian in their Rolodexes? If you’d said that whether something does or does not cause offense to Muslims would be the early twenty-first century’s principal political dynamic in Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, and the United Kingdom, most folks would have thought you were crazy. Yet on that Tuesday morning the top of the iceberg bobbed up and toppled the Twin Towers.
This book is about the seven-eighths below the surface—the larger forces at play in the developed world that have left Europe too enfeebled to resist its remorseless transformation into Eurabia and that call into question the future of much of the rest of the world, including the United States, Canada, and beyond. The key factors are:
- Demographic decline
- The unsustainability of the advanced Western social-democratic state
- Civilizational exhaustion
Let’s start with demography, because everything does.
I’m already enthralled.
Mark Steyn's argument sounds seductive, but he has some statistics problems (one, two) that reduce the persuasiveness of his "Eurabia" argument.
He seems to have confused his numbers: He talks about the statistical probability that Europe could be as much as 40 percent Muslim, but the number Adam at the Crossed Pond and I have both seen, elsewhere, is that there could be as many as 40 million Muslims in Europe by 2025, and that's an aggressive assumption since there are just 20 million now. Out of almost 500 million.
Forty million in a population of 500 million is close to the portion Americans who are of Polish descent, or about 8 percent of the EU. Eight percent is about two-thirds of the demographic representation of African Americans and Latinos in the U.S. (14 percent), or double that of Asian Americans (4 percent).
Basically, Mark Steyn is arguing for a political transformation of Europe far more radical than any in all of history, based on a population somewhere between that of the Polish and African American communities.
Makes me wonder if, with a little digging in journals and books from the late '60s, during the race riots, I could turn up the same sort of arguments about how someday the U.S. could be utterly overrun by and beholden to its African American population.
The reality today couldn't be further from the truth.
Oops. Funny thing that, the misuse of a percentage mark.
Posted by: Wes Meltzer at March 12, 2007 7:56 PM
I'll reserve final judgment until I finish reading the book.
But expect more quotes, all the same.
Posted by: chris
at March 13, 2007 11:21 AM