Sunday, 25 November 2007

The thoroughly unlikely, but hopeful, scenario

So the Tigers really blew it on Friday. Looking ahead to the SEC championship? Thinking of playing for the national title game? Distracted by the Miles-leaving-for-Michigan chatter? Whatever it was, the LSU football team was clearly not focused on getting past Arkansas, and it led to their number-one ranking being lost again in triple overtime.

Today’s BCS poll has the Tigers in the number seven spot, which is probably about right. (I think they should be ranked ahead of Virginia Tech, a team they trounced early in the season and which has not had as tough a schedule as the Tigers, but since when has playing in the toughest conference counted for anything with the polls?) It is possible for LSU to still advance to the BCS National Championship Game, but they need a lot of help, which they probably won’t get.

  1. The Tigers have to put the rest of the season behind them and take care of business against Tennessee in the SEC Championship. The same team that demolished a good Virginia Tech team in week two needs to emerge once again, because, quite frankly, we haven’t seen that team since around week two. The Tigers have a perennial problem of playing down to the level of their opponent, rather than at the consistently high level they should be playing at. This is what cost them the game against Arkansas, and could spell their doom against Tennessee.

  2. Missouri has to lose to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship. (Quite possible, as it appears that the Sooners are better now than when they beat Missouri earlier in the season.)

  3. West Virginia has to lose to Pittsburgh. (The most unlikely of these scenarios.)

  4. Virginia Tech has to lose to Boston College. (Will the Hokies fall twice in the same year to BC? It happened to Georgia against LSU in 2003. Unfortunately, this is probably the second least-likely outcome.)

If all of the above were to occur, LSU would theoretically be in the BCS Championship game against Ohio State. The season is over for Georgia and Kansas. Since they won’t win their conferences, they’re not allowed to play for the BCS title, despite being ranked by the BCS ahead of LSU.

What I think will actually happen is this:

  1. LSU beats Tennessee in a closer-than-it-should’ve-been contest to advance to the Sugar Bowl, much to the chagrin (again) of the Sugar Bowl committee and New Orleans Board of Tourism, both of which want the influx of cash from out-of-staters, rather than fans who can drive the 60 miles between New Orleans and Baton Rouge and still sleep in their own beds.

  2. Oklahoma upsets Missouri to win the Big 12.

  3. Boston College rallies from behind late in the game to upset VT.

  4. West Virginia trounces Pittsburgh much like what they did to Connecticut to advance to the BCS National Championship against Ohio State.

So we shall hope for the former scenario, while acknowledging the latter is far, far more likely…

posted on November 25, 2007 9:55 PM




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